Monday, January 25, 2021

China & Iran

         Before Trump left office, former Sec. of State Mike Pompeo made an announcement stating Iran is the new home to Al Qaeda. This comes at a time when America is putting war back on the table. Biden did say he would be a president for everyone, which actually means the entire establishment. Therefore, new wars will start for the sake of unity. 

    However, a war with Iran would further weaken America and that might be the plan to expose America as a falling empire. A key partnership Iran has is with China. They have a 25-year agreement that helps Iran economically in exchange China gets oil:

The Middle East is consistently important to China because of its massive demand for oil from the Middle East to support China’s manufacturing industries, but the region has never been in the core interests of the Chinese foreign policy. During the Maoist era, China’s regional interests were driven by a strong ideological stance aiming to confront “U.S. Imperialism and its regional proxies.” During this period, China would affirmatively side with Nasser’s Egypt and Arafat’s Palestine while almost entirely refusing to deal with U.S. regional allies such as Israel. But after China’s economic reforms, its foreign policy has become less ideological, moving from “supporting justice in the Third World” to “becoming every regional actor’s friend.” The core strategy of China in the Middle East is to emphasize economic cooperation while avoiding political alliances and to maintain a balanced relationship with all actors in the region while avoiding picking sides in regional conflicts. 

    America's new administration has halted the keystone pipeline, and that increases dependency on foreign nations for oil, specifically the middle east. With China taking a different approach to power via their belt road initiative, countries in the middle east will choose the Chinese over western powers. This is already being shown in Iran:

For the last few years, China has been the largest importer of oil, and it depends more on the Middle East for it. It views Iran as both a critical supplier of energy resources and a participant in its global infrastructure project. China considers freedom of navigation in the Persian Gulf as critical to protection of its interests. But in 2020, Beijing purchased just three million tons of Iranian oil, down more than 70 percent from 2019.

The new administration offers hope that, with the return to a nuclear deal and the easing of sanctions, oil will begin to flow vigorously once more. But barring systemic reform that will bolster business confidence, Iran is still reliant on Chinese economic relations. The draft of an ambitious deal with China that envisions $400 billion worth of projects leaked over the summer, a signal that Beijing intends to play a greater role in the region. This has coincided with other prominent leaders in the Middle East and Africa turning to China for grand infrastructure investments.

China controls 75 percent of the oil industry in Sudan, will start running the Port of Haifa in Israel, and even invested in the shiny Cairo central business district in Egypt. But these building blocks of influence, while yielding economic leverage, have not yet translated into any substantial political clout. The ties will nonetheless infuse much needed investment for infrastructure, cybersecurity, intelligence, and the financial sector, along with military support in return for discounted oil and gas.

... What is likewise significant about this partnership is that China and Iran have broader ambitions as foes of the United States. While China now challenges the United States in Asia, the Middle East and certainly Iran could become the new battlefield for a confrontation between the two powers. China providing scarce resources to Tehran can only bolster the theocratic and kleptocratic regime burdened by sanctions.

    China is looking to build an espionage hub in Iran to spy on its citizens, but this will probably serve as an espionage hub to use against America too. China already has front companies in Iran:

U.S. law enforcement in September accused hackers based in Iran and China of conducting global espionage operations while appearing to exist as otherwise innocuous technology firms. While the public nature of the charges are proof the efforts weren’t entirely successful, the tactic marks an evolution of the use of dummy corporations since a group of financial scammers stole a reported $1 billion by posing as a cybersecurity testing firm.

...Intelligence analysts contend the Chinese government began outsourcing cyber-espionage work to nondescript companies after a 2014 agreement in which the U.S. and China agreed to not sponsor any malicious cyber activity for economic gain.

    From my perceptive, China will help Iran in war with USA. Iran will win giving China complete control over the middle east. However, this control will not be what we are used to it. It will be soft power. 

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